Klimatem rządzi słońce

Abstrakt

The current blessed Modern Warming is one of innumerable former natural warm climatic phases. Its temperature is lower than in the four earlier warm periods over the past 1, 500 years. The long and medium term fluctuations of climate are induced by cosmic factors. Medium term changes are caused mainly by fluctuations of Sun activity, whose magnetic field controls the incoming galactic cosmic radiation. In the middle troposphere the muon fraction of cosmic rays creates condensation centers for cloud droplets forming the low cloud cover, which regulates the insolation. In geological time scale the flux of cosmic rays is influenced by the migration of Solar System through the spiral arms of the Milky Way, with different concentration of dust and activity of novas. The relationship between temperature of the lower troposphere and the cosmic radiation flux, is much stronger than between CO2 concentration. During the past 800 000 years the change in CO2 atmospheric concentration lagged behind the temperature change, showing that CO2 concentrations depend on temperature and not vice versa. IPCC ignores the cosmoclimatological influences, and concentrates on man-made CO2, which contributes only some 0.15% to the global greenhouse effect. IPCC rejected 90, 000 direct CO2 measurements in the atmosphere from the period 1812 to 1961, demonstrating that the 5-year average CO2 concentrations were peaking up to 440 ppm in 1829, 390 ppm in 1855 and 440 ppm in 1940. Instead, basing on the results of proxy determinations in polar ice, IPCC assumed that preindustrial CO2 level in the atmosphere was about 280 ppm, and that during the past 800, 000 years it never reached the level above 300 ppm before the 20th century. However, polar ice is not a closed system, in which the original gas concentrations could be preserved. In fact, the CO2 data from the ice cores are artifacts, in which the original CO2 concentrations were depleted by 30 to 50%. The only IPCC's "proof" of human causation of the Modern Warming are the results of computer modeling. However, these models are unable to paint an accurate picture of the present climate variability. The IPCC projections of sea level rise are in disagreement with observations at the symbolic sites of the imminent climatic catastrophe - the islands of Maldives, Tuvalu and Vanautu, where the sea level is similar as was 4000 years ago. At Maldives it decreased by 20 to 30 cm in the 1970s, and did not changed since then. Due to low activity of Sun the global temperature did not increase since 1998, and shows a decreasing trend since 2002, in spite of a steadily increasing atmospheric level of CO2, and of its industrial emissions.