Millennial and contemporary changes of Middle East climate

Abstrakt

The article identifies the intervals of climate change in Middle East during the period of 3000–0 BC as well as its contemporary changes. For this purpose, various data sets were used: 1) information from numerous archaeological research and historical documents, 2) the NAO index and winter precipitation (DJFM) databases for the years 1890-2020, 3) average monthly and annual air temperature values ( Tmean) for 6 stations in Iraq for the period 1941-2020. In the millennium perspective, four periods of significant cool and dry phases were identified (2650-2500, 2200-1900, 1300-1200 and 1000-850 BC). These phases were characterized by extreme climatic harshness, which resulted in significant socio-political changes in the Mesopotamian area. Studies of contemporary climate change suggest negative correlations between the winter NAO index and DJFM precipitation, and in the last 80 years - positive air temperature trends of up to 0.9°C/10 years.